It remains to be seen, but if Erdogan’s recent claims are true then one of my initial interpretations of the coup may be correct. In my first post on the situation I lamented that if this coup has US backing then it may see Erdogan replaced by an even worse Islamist and even more pro-western client, Fathallah Gulen. As RT reports, “The Turkish government has indirectly criticized its NATO ally, the US, for harboring Fethullah Gülen, whom Ankara blames for masterminding Friday’s military coup attempt. The cleric is currently living in self-imposed exile in the States” [1]. While it may or may not be true, this was one of my fears from the beginning. I would be extremely pleased to see some form of anti-imperialist secular leadership replace Edrodgan.

But Fethullah Gülen, a cleric and former political ally of Erdogan who has been living in self-imposed exile in the US for years, is the anti-thesis of these and would arguably be far worse for Turkey and the region than Erdogan. When news of the coup first broke I had hopes that it was a genuine domestic coup by the secular anti-Erdogan factions within the military. But if indeed the western client and hard-line Islamist cleric is behind the attempted coup, then it is better that it fails, for Gulen would take Turkey from bad to worse. Continue reading →

UPDATE: As new reports continue to come out of Turkey–some claiming that the coup continues while others report that Erdogan has successfully repelled the coup and is arresting and or killing those involved–more and more questions are arising.

A question that was recently raised to me is, considering how quickly Erdogan was (allegedly) able to put down the coup, is it possible that he had foreknowledge of the coup plot and allowed it to play out in order to weed out those not fully loyal to him in the military and make strategic arrests ? If this is the case–and I am not claiming that it is, merely speculating about the various possibilities–and if he is able to remain in power, will we see him introduce even more authoritarian and draconian laws (i.e., anti-treason and or anti-terrorism laws, etc) in the near future and what will this mean for the already autocratic political atmosphere in the country?

For now, there are no definite answers, just mounting questions, as the situation continues to unfold and takes some unexpected twists and turns. As someone that very much would like to see Erdogan and Islamist leadership out of Turkey I wonder and worry about the fate of the country. If Erdogan is able to regain full control of the state, then the country must brace for what is to come.

As the events unfold in Turkey my thoughts are a mixture of tentative exhilaration and possible trepidation. As a secular anti-imperialist, the exhilaration stems from the possibility of seeing one of the region’s most troublesome western imperial-collaborating Islamists finally ousted. But, as a secular anti-imperialist, there is also mounting trepidation that, if this coup turns out to be NATO or US sponsored, Erdogan could be replaced with an even more pro-Empire/pro neoliberal globalization Islamist. The person that comes to mind is Fethullah Gülen, a very pro-US and pro-capitalist Islamist cleric currently living in the US. While I would like to believe that the unfolding coup is the result of an independent, secular, Kamalist military trying to return Turkey to its former secular glory, I also fear that turkey’s military, which is aligned with NATO and western power, may be being used by the west and NATO to punish Erdogan for failing to get rid of Syria’s secular leader, Bashar Al Assad, and for Erdogan’s recent overtures to Russia’s Vladimir Putin. I very much hope the former turns out to be true. But the timing seems strange. Turkey’s secular generals have been at odds with Erdogan since he came to power over a decade ago. Is this a coup fourteen years in the making? Or, is the military but a pawn in a NATO/western scheme to get rid of their existing stooge in hopes of installing a more competent one?

It is still too early to be able to answer any of these questions. We do not presently have enough information to know for certain one way or another.

UPDATE: Reports that Hillary Clinton has voiced support for the Turkish government may suggest that it is a domestic coup but we have to wait and see how it plays out. Also, reports that part of the Turkish military remain loyal to Erdogan and that the military factions are engaged in armed combat against one another raises concern for a potential civil war. There are so many moving parts right now that it is difficult to predict what might happen next. I will be posting on the situation in Turkey as it unfolds.

Having written about the Egyptian revolution and the ensuing political twists and turns since the 2011 uprisings, five years later I look on and wonder about the sum gains and costs. In 2011 I wrote about the importance of coupling any type of street protests and reactionary political momentum with behind the scenes, long term strategic and ideological planning for what comes after the “revolutionary moment.”

While numbers and street protests play a part in popular uprisings, without strategic planning for what comes next (i.e., plans and alternatives for the post-revolutionary trajectory) people’s uprisings can be easily co-opted and revolutionary hopes thwarted. As I noted in an article last year, “the Egyptian revolution originally began with calls for ‘bread, freedom, social justice and human dignity.’ Nowhere in this popular discourse were there demands for greater religiosity or increased state force” [1]. Yet this is the trajectory that the revolution took, with the Muslim Brotherhood co-opting the people’s uprising and coming to power in 2012, to later be ousted by the Mubarak-esque military regime of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, which, for many, has thus far been as draconian as that of former president Hosni Mubarak.

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It remains to be confirmed, but western officials are already blaming ISIS/ISIL for today’s bombings in Istanbul. The American special envoy to coordinate the fight against the Islamic State, Brett McGurk, has condemned the Istanbul attack. He tweeted: “Strongly condemn suicide attack in heart of Istanbul and stand with the people of Turkey in our common fight against ISIL terrorists.” [1]What is both interesting and extremely frustrating (not least for the poor innocent victims of the bombing, who were mostly German nationals and for the people of Istanbul who will likely live in fear in its aftermath) about the Istanbul bombing is that Turkey (and certain western allies) has been supportive of ISIS.

If ISIS is behind today’s Blue Mosque area bombings, then this is yet another tragic example of blowback; a regime that has supported particular terrorists groups later has to deal with the same group committing violent acts of terrorism on its soil. Turkey is a NATO member and a strategic ally of the US. While western powers like the US readily condemn Islamic terrorism, they seem unwilling to take out terrorist groups like ISIS, despite having the capacity to do so. This is something even the mainstream media acknowledges. After the 2015 Paris attacks, the Guardian lamented that: “we can expect western heads of state to do what they always do in such circumstances: declare total and unremitting war on those who brought it about. They don’t actually mean it. They’ve had the means to uproot and destroy Islamic State within their hands for over a year now. They’ve simply refused to make use of it.” [2] Continue reading →